Stormy autumn, cold winter - how might El Niño affect the UK weather?

• 01The Met Office stated that El Niño is developing across the Pacific Ocean with impacts rippling globally.
• 02Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the Met Office, said he has not seen an event like this developing in forecasts before and described the scale of the growing El Niño as unprecedented in modern climate records.
• 03The Met Office predicts an increased chance of wet and stormy autumn and early winter weather in the UK, particularly in November and December.
• 04El Niño is projected to reach its peak by the end of 2026.
• 05The winter of 2015 and 2016 coincided with a strong El Niño and brought major storms described by experts as the most extreme flooding on record.
• 06The winter of 2009/2010, described as the coldest in three decades at the time, coincided with an El Niño.
• 07The winter of 2006/2007 was an El Niño winter that was unseasonably warm.
• 08A very strong El Niño typically lifts average global temperatures by 0.2C.
• 09Dr. Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading stated that long-term global warming remains the more significant driver of the UK's rising temperatures and increasing risk of extreme heat.
• 10Storm Floris brought winds with gusts up to 80mph to parts of the UK in 2025.

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The Met Office reported that an unprecedented developing El Niño will likely increase the probability of wet, stormy autumn and early winter weather in the UK, with peak conditions expected by the end of 2026. Professor Adam Scaife highlighted the uniqueness of the current forecast signals, while scientists noted that although El Niño typically raises global average temperatures by 0.2C, global warming remains the primary driver of extreme heat risks in the UK.